* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/13/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 33 43 55 65 70 71 72 72 71 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 33 43 55 65 70 52 35 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 33 39 46 39 31 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 13 13 18 15 14 14 17 21 22 22 19 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 -1 -2 -2 -5 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 143 151 138 138 120 106 81 74 70 88 108 121 131 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 153 153 151 150 148 146 144 146 150 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 146 147 148 148 146 145 144 142 140 141 144 149 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.3 -54.2 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 4 4 4 3 5 5 6 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 75 73 71 75 72 67 67 61 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 9 12 14 13 10 10 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 46 41 48 38 36 49 54 57 54 66 66 57 46 200 MB DIV 94 114 116 106 85 97 69 75 63 76 56 54 36 LAND (KM) 156 195 199 186 173 144 187 185 87 -71 -165 -123 -100 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.9 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.0 13.7 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 76.8 77.2 77.6 78.1 78.6 79.5 80.6 81.7 83.0 84.3 85.6 86.9 88.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 72 70 66 61 54 41 45 46 44 20 21 23 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 23. 35. 45. 50. 51. 52. 52. 51. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/13/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/13/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/13/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)