* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/13/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 36 46 57 66 69 69 70 70 69 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 36 46 57 66 69 55 36 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 25 30 35 42 48 43 32 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 10 15 15 9 9 14 18 25 25 21 20 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -1 1 -4 -3 -4 -2 -4 -6 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 126 138 141 126 107 95 76 66 73 99 102 127 118 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 152 151 151 148 147 147 144 146 150 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 145 146 146 146 144 143 144 141 141 144 152 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 4 6 4 5 4 5 6 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 71 74 73 74 74 76 75 73 70 65 64 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 10 12 12 11 9 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 41 36 35 47 44 43 40 55 55 53 48 200 MB DIV 126 131 115 87 79 105 71 72 68 65 58 53 34 LAND (KM) 166 200 199 183 168 124 141 174 119 -42 -189 -115 -44 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.8 11.5 12.4 13.2 13.6 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.9 77.3 77.6 78.0 78.4 79.3 80.3 81.4 82.7 84.0 85.5 86.9 88.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 4 5 6 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 75 74 70 65 57 44 41 44 43 54 22 23 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 37. 46. 49. 49. 50. 50. 49. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/13/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/13/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/13/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)