* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/14/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 54 59 61 64 64 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 46 54 51 36 35 36 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 35 41 48 33 33 36 38 SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 13 12 14 15 20 18 19 22 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -3 -4 -4 -5 -1 -3 -1 -2 -7 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 105 78 97 112 90 87 93 85 103 104 119 121 116 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 151 151 148 145 145 144 144 146 148 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 145 146 147 145 141 140 139 141 145 152 159 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 5 3 3 5 4 6 5 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 75 77 78 77 73 71 65 65 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 9 7 9 8 7 6 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 35 27 34 36 34 42 42 58 63 62 61 49 2 200 MB DIV 74 46 34 31 17 28 30 56 17 30 18 -13 -1 LAND (KM) 204 198 192 159 126 148 147 106 -7 -132 43 267 498 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.1 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.7 11.3 11.9 12.2 11.7 10.7 9.5 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 78.1 78.3 78.8 79.2 80.4 81.7 82.8 83.8 85.2 87.0 89.1 91.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 8 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 61 55 51 48 44 42 41 36 1 25 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 34. 39. 41. 44. 44. 43. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/14/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/14/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/14/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)