* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/14/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 47 55 60 63 62 60 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 37 47 42 32 28 27 28 23 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 26 31 38 36 30 28 27 31 29 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 9 7 9 13 12 17 13 17 23 26 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 -4 -1 -5 -4 -3 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 96 107 110 98 83 114 119 132 133 154 161 181 192 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.7 29.2 30.0 29.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 153 153 150 146 143 146 155 170 160 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 146 148 149 146 140 138 142 152 172 163 121 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 7 7 5 6 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 70 71 69 73 69 67 66 65 72 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 7 8 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 37 37 38 39 40 52 69 60 53 44 18 -2 200 MB DIV 60 31 24 6 4 33 40 35 10 35 31 18 -10 LAND (KM) 278 271 263 250 253 245 89 -43 -224 -108 -8 158 376 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.9 12.6 13.3 13.8 14.0 13.5 12.8 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.3 78.6 78.9 79.5 80.1 81.4 82.7 83.9 85.6 87.5 89.6 92.1 94.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 47 47 48 43 13 55 0 27 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 27. 35. 40. 43. 42. 40. 35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/14/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/14/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/14/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)