* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/15/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 38 47 54 59 60 59 57 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 38 47 37 32 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 31 29 33 29 27 29 SHEAR (KT) 15 11 9 10 9 9 9 13 17 20 23 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 109 113 99 123 115 131 138 167 159 180 174 192 199 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.5 29.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 153 152 147 143 141 144 147 160 166 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 146 147 146 142 137 134 136 139 156 165 131 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 6 6 5 8 6 7 4 4 1 3 700-500 MB RH 71 66 67 66 67 64 62 63 61 65 64 68 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 46 44 39 38 53 43 33 40 35 16 11 200 MB DIV 37 16 14 24 30 39 43 21 31 32 27 14 -8 LAND (KM) 303 300 300 324 336 194 43 -30 -15 3 -54 -71 82 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.4 14.4 15.2 15.7 15.8 15.3 14.6 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 79.0 79.3 79.9 80.4 81.6 82.8 84.1 85.6 87.1 88.7 90.8 93.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 50 50 50 55 59 57 2 46 0 0 79 45 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 26. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 18. 27. 34. 39. 40. 39. 37. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/15/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/15/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/15/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)