* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/15/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 34 42 50 54 57 56 56 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 34 42 40 33 29 28 30 26 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 28 33 32 29 28 27 30 29 SHEAR (KT) 15 11 12 9 12 10 13 15 16 17 23 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -5 -3 -3 1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 108 99 85 92 119 113 166 139 164 157 185 175 182 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.7 29.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 152 153 153 151 145 142 145 150 165 161 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 146 146 146 147 145 139 135 138 144 165 163 120 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 6 6 5 7 7 7 5 6 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 69 68 67 65 61 63 64 69 66 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 28 29 29 35 54 46 38 51 41 25 17 200 MB DIV 34 23 34 26 42 45 49 37 62 51 23 25 18 LAND (KM) 281 283 285 306 334 263 118 -8 -39 -49 -132 49 228 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.4 14.5 15.2 15.5 15.3 14.5 13.7 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.2 78.6 78.9 79.4 79.8 80.9 82.1 83.7 85.4 87.1 89.1 91.7 94.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 8 9 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 49 51 56 63 2 0 70 73 40 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 14. 22. 30. 34. 37. 36. 36. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/15/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/15/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/15/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)