* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/15/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 40 47 50 50 50 50 48 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 33 40 47 50 37 30 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 29 33 36 38 31 28 30 29 SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 11 7 10 13 14 18 20 18 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 82 76 104 117 122 152 180 170 169 169 176 153 174 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.4 29.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 148 149 150 148 141 137 135 137 143 162 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 140 142 143 145 143 134 128 127 131 143 166 129 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 5 7 6 7 5 5 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 74 72 74 74 71 72 65 66 67 67 71 73 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 12 12 9 32 41 27 37 54 49 30 13 200 MB DIV 37 29 25 40 41 56 48 48 50 47 36 33 19 LAND (KM) 264 308 337 362 390 301 166 101 17 -55 -100 98 276 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.8 13.1 14.2 15.4 16.0 16.0 15.3 14.0 12.9 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.7 78.1 78.7 79.2 80.4 81.7 83.1 84.5 85.9 88.0 90.5 93.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 10 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 59 52 50 55 61 79 8 3 0 62 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 20. 27. 30. 30. 30. 31. 28. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/15/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/15/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/15/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)