* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/16/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 34 41 45 44 40 38 35 33 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 34 41 45 44 33 33 30 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 25 29 33 34 34 28 29 25 22 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 5 9 13 10 26 29 32 25 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -2 0 2 3 -1 2 3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 91 102 105 83 134 190 180 191 194 209 206 207 205 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.1 28.1 27.9 28.7 29.4 25.8 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 149 152 150 144 138 137 135 148 160 113 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 143 146 150 148 140 131 128 129 147 164 112 107 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.9 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 6 7 4 5 4 3 2 6 700-500 MB RH 75 73 75 73 76 69 70 70 72 72 69 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 7 6 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -8 0 13 23 31 6 21 37 21 17 2 8 200 MB DIV 28 33 42 54 64 65 82 67 61 18 11 -4 -13 LAND (KM) 210 287 365 423 388 195 101 88 39 -108 47 268 344 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.4 14.0 15.3 16.3 16.7 16.1 14.7 13.6 13.0 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 76.7 77.4 78.0 78.8 79.6 81.4 83.4 85.0 86.5 88.6 91.4 94.2 97.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 7 8 10 10 11 9 8 10 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 75 55 50 60 84 24 40 74 13 15 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 13. 20. 26. 31. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 2. -4. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 21. 25. 24. 20. 18. 15. 13. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/16/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/16/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/16/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)