* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/16/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 35 40 39 36 34 32 31 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 35 40 35 30 31 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 29 30 27 27 29 25 23 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 10 11 9 8 18 26 33 30 25 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -2 1 1 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 86 81 82 119 168 183 194 189 199 208 202 206 200 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 29.3 27.9 25.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 151 150 149 140 137 136 139 158 137 108 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 146 149 148 146 134 129 127 135 159 136 106 131 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 7 6 6 4 4 3 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 74 73 70 71 71 68 71 68 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 14 21 32 16 2 26 34 16 4 1 -1 200 MB DIV 40 38 41 51 52 54 74 79 45 27 12 -11 6 LAND (KM) 272 365 409 400 312 123 89 84 -17 -85 68 238 268 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.7 16.6 16.6 15.7 14.6 14.0 13.7 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.3 78.0 78.7 79.5 80.3 82.3 84.1 85.6 87.4 90.0 92.6 95.4 98.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 11 10 8 8 12 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 58 50 56 81 90 6 65 71 0 32 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 20. 26. 31. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 5. 1. -4. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 20. 19. 16. 14. 12. 11. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/16/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/16/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/16/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)