* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 11/19/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 32 29 28 26 26 25 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 27 27 27 27 26 29 27 27 26 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 23 24 26 26 26 29 28 27 26 24 SHEAR (KT) 22 31 31 29 30 30 25 28 29 27 32 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 1 0 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 189 198 203 205 195 193 178 167 165 169 162 159 158 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.4 27.7 26.9 26.5 29.2 29.5 28.8 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 142 142 133 123 119 155 161 148 142 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 128 131 136 136 126 117 114 152 156 142 133 129 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.7 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 -55.4 -55.8 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 6 5 3 6 4 7 5 8 5 7 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 61 62 58 54 56 53 52 50 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 1 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -8 -18 -16 -10 -17 -14 -18 -12 -16 -12 -29 -22 200 MB DIV 62 46 55 53 58 45 0 -4 -4 10 25 -1 23 LAND (KM) 119 113 76 -18 -86 -166 -27 -13 13 73 133 176 224 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.2 16.1 15.9 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 85.8 86.7 87.6 88.7 89.7 91.8 93.8 96.0 98.3 100.6 102.7 104.6 106.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 55 51 48 1 0 9 6 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):294/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 11/19/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 11/19/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 11/19/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)