* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST AL882010 12/09/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 33 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 33 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 36 33 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 46 60 64 67 74 81 69 47 35 32 32 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 0 -5 -7 -12 -10 3 21 29 28 22 19 13 SHEAR DIR 215 214 219 231 236 235 233 211 196 180 182 175 187 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.6 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 134 134 134 135 135 134 132 127 119 115 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 124 124 125 126 128 128 128 124 118 115 115 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 5 4 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 63 59 55 53 51 46 47 49 52 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 40 45 44 42 38 24 24 18 16 14 8 0 200 MB DIV 0 11 -8 -16 -2 -10 5 40 33 66 49 21 -6 LAND (KM) 272 286 301 303 307 256 198 115 -6 -5 140 339 522 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.3 10.8 9.9 8.7 7.4 6.4 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 80.2 80.3 80.5 80.7 81.3 81.9 82.7 83.7 84.7 85.9 87.2 88.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 28 28 29 31 33 32 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -11. -18. -35. -52. -67. -72. -76. -77. -74. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 1. -3. -7. -8. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -6. -12. -27. -45. -61. -72. -82. -84. -84. -83. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882010 TEST 12/09/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 62.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882010 TEST 12/09/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL882010 TEST 12/09/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)