* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP982010 12/18/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 50 64 73 75 74 69 63 57 40 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 50 64 73 75 74 69 63 57 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 38 42 52 59 61 59 52 42 33 23 SHEAR (KT) 16 25 30 25 37 35 35 36 27 17 22 41 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -5 -6 -1 0 -2 0 1 3 13 9 SHEAR DIR 338 357 358 349 331 321 298 288 266 232 221 235 266 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.1 25.5 24.7 22.9 20.0 17.0 13.3 10.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 121 123 124 124 118 111 94 65 64 63 63 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.6 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -57.3 -58.9 -60.7 -62.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 7 8 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 55 59 64 65 64 66 65 70 69 64 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 10 10 10 12 13 12 11 10 9 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR 199 217 228 218 229 257 250 225 206 164 130 68 -67 200 MB DIV 140 106 112 102 104 91 163 173 112 99 78 95 155 LAND (KM) 1944 1969 1995 1981 1968 1812 1638 1556 1635 1875 2210 2061 1837 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.1 22.6 22.3 21.9 22.2 23.6 25.6 28.7 32.7 36.9 40.4 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 178.7 179.0 179.2 179.1 178.9 177.4 175.7 174.6 174.3 174.5 175.0 175.7 177.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 8 11 13 17 21 20 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 4 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. 5. 1. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -12. -19. -24. -26. -32. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 28. 34. 40. 44. 47. 48. 48. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 20. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 20. 34. 43. 45. 44. 39. 33. 27. 10. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP982010 INVEST 12/18/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP982010 INVEST 12/18/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY