* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OMEKA CP882010 12/19/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 60 62 66 68 69 62 48 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 60 62 66 68 69 62 48 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 59 63 67 71 68 62 51 38 26 15 DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 30 38 49 50 42 33 34 41 60 80 86 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 3 6 3 0 0 -3 -17 -18 -3 SHEAR DIR 315 338 333 321 309 288 247 229 244 265 283 287 301 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 25.8 24.9 22.8 19.2 16.2 14.0 9.3 6.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 125 128 128 122 114 94 65 64 63 65 66 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.9 -56.4 -57.8 -59.7 -61.8 -62.5 -59.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 55 60 58 58 48 49 55 64 66 54 53 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 242 243 235 253 256 262 233 173 69 0 -127 -230 -250 200 MB DIV 76 91 153 192 168 191 179 161 73 39 -45 -45 -97 LAND (KM) 2016 2088 2161 2103 2045 1861 1730 1631 1686 1921 1861 1446 941 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.4 23.1 25.4 29.0 33.3 37.2 40.0 43.5 47.3 LONG(DEG W) 179.3 180.0 180.7 180.2 179.6 177.9 176.4 174.1 171.3 169.5 168.7 167.0 161.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 1 5 8 12 17 23 23 17 17 22 26 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 16 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 803 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -14. -19. -25. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -17. -22. -30. -41. -57. -72. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 30. 36. 40. 42. 43. 45. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 12. 16. 18. 19. 12. -2. -23. -46. -67. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP882010 OMEKA 12/19/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 136.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882010 OMEKA 12/19/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY