* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP982010 12/20/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 60 63 64 58 43 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 60 63 64 58 43 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 55 57 58 57 50 40 31 22 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 31 40 40 37 33 29 31 41 69 83 78 64 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 4 5 2 2 -2 1 -10 -20 -22 -8 3 SHEAR DIR 319 303 294 290 280 263 245 254 261 272 283 301 289 SST (C) 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.6 25.0 23.5 20.6 17.3 16.1 18.6 21.6 23.2 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 129 123 116 100 70 63 62 64 80 96 102 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.8 -55.4 -55.9 -56.1 -56.7 -57.5 -58.1 -58.8 -59.1 -60.1 -60.0 -60.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 59 60 63 64 64 56 47 43 41 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 246 276 248 243 201 149 119 51 -20 -39 -70 -78 -67 200 MB DIV 151 198 220 199 181 105 98 31 -24 -41 -91 -82 -95 LAND (KM) 2093 1871 1652 1518 1409 1433 1597 1759 1713 1406 1014 702 517 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.9 21.5 23.1 24.7 28.0 31.7 35.2 36.4 34.5 31.3 28.5 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 179.9 177.9 175.8 174.6 173.3 172.4 171.7 169.9 166.5 163.0 160.4 158.7 157.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 20 19 20 18 18 19 16 14 18 17 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 29 18 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 1004 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -9. -16. -21. -24. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -17. -30. -48. -64. -73. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 26. 32. 35. 37. 37. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 11. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 13. -2. -23. -43. -56. -64. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP982010 INVEST 12/20/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 189.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP982010 INVEST 12/20/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY