* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OMEKA CP012010 12/20/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 42 42 41 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 42 42 41 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 41 38 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 44 39 36 35 35 36 47 65 74 43 62 61 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 9 3 3 -5 0 -3 0 27 20 21 N/A SHEAR DIR 296 292 282 270 263 239 242 257 288 307 298 301 N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.1 25.7 24.9 23.8 21.5 17.7 14.9 7.7 6.4 5.3 3.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 122 115 104 81 65 66 69 63 69 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -56.0 -58.8 -61.3 -61.6 -55.1 -59.2 -58.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 53 51 57 54 53 57 48 28 35 29 24 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 261 243 206 203 181 153 100 -30 -292 -100 -129 -173 N/A 200 MB DIV 164 185 166 170 157 122 120 56 -87 -105 -26 95 N/A LAND (KM) 1812 1689 1574 1550 1554 1701 2112 2131 1336 916 760 763 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 22.0 22.9 24.8 26.6 30.5 35.7 39.1 44.9 47.5 50.7 57.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 177.3 176.2 175.1 174.7 174.3 174.0 174.9 174.2 168.3 158.6 167.8 175.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 19 19 23 21 26 35 15 36 39 N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -15. -21. -25. -29. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -12. -23. -42. -58. -74. -86. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 29. 37. 47. 52. 57. 56. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -9. -21. -41. -58. -78. -95.-105. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012010 OMEKA 12/20/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 168.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012010 OMEKA 12/20/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY