* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 12/20/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 28 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 9 15 20 21 22 32 35 42 38 44 56 66 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 3 5 0 -6 -11 SHEAR DIR 266 224 231 240 235 234 230 231 233 241 263 268 277 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 136 136 136 134 132 132 132 131 131 128 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 131 132 133 131 129 125 123 122 123 131 141 127 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -55.0 -55.4 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 38 39 44 48 51 52 49 50 50 43 39 41 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -32 -37 -33 -21 -32 -33 -35 -45 -64 -60 -91 -124 200 MB DIV -10 -1 10 17 24 6 10 47 36 -6 -27 6 11 LAND (KM) 587 558 507 428 358 287 311 376 455 448 534 1118 2054 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.8 15.9 17.6 20.0 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 55.1 55.8 56.5 57.4 58.2 59.6 60.9 61.9 62.5 62.3 60.7 55.2 45.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 8 19 38 47 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 42 41 41 44 54 50 47 45 35 16 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -13. -20. -27. -34. -40. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -7. -14. -22. -28. -34. -40. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 12/20/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 12/20/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 12/20/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)