* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OMEKA CP012010 12/20/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 34 34 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 34 34 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 27 26 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 42 31 28 30 25 35 47 81 18 37 16 32 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 6 6 6 -4 1 4 -1 26 -6 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 294 285 265 258 250 248 269 278 229 224 185 178 N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.3 24.5 23.4 22.6 20.0 15.5 12.2 8.9 9.9 7.2 8.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 110 100 91 66 67 70 70 61 62 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -54.7 -55.4 -56.1 -57.1 -57.5 -54.8 -45.3 -48.8 -47.4 -49.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 56 57 57 54 60 27 59 78 71 74 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 263 260 243 188 139 120 0 -5 240 285 233 179 N/A 200 MB DIV 195 209 200 138 114 131 0 -65 -18 72 24 96 N/A LAND (KM) 1677 1692 1726 1621 1546 1740 1653 1669 1441 882 980 467 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 24.1 25.7 27.2 28.7 32.7 36.4 40.7 44.7 45.0 48.6 50.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 176.1 176.2 176.3 174.8 173.3 172.7 164.7 161.2 146.2 136.3 142.9 135.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 17 20 19 27 30 41 46 11 14 26 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -17. -20. -23. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -19. -29. -41. -47. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 24. 32. 42. 50. 56. 58. 56. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -8. -22. -26. -31. -33. -38. -44. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012010 OMEKA 12/20/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 171.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012010 OMEKA 12/20/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY