* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 12/21/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 27 26 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 14 19 20 22 27 34 37 40 41 46 54 60 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 1 2 4 3 0 -10 SHEAR DIR 238 242 239 232 228 231 222 232 224 241 255 264 263 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 136 135 134 132 131 131 130 130 126 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 132 132 130 128 125 122 121 122 125 124 123 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 40 45 47 51 52 55 56 57 52 47 41 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -42 -38 -24 -28 -36 -35 -47 -50 -68 -62 -93 -106 200 MB DIV 3 21 26 30 26 19 48 44 28 -20 -18 -20 -22 LAND (KM) 556 472 391 328 280 267 344 388 435 401 447 729 1216 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.8 17.3 18.9 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 56.0 56.9 57.7 58.5 59.3 60.8 62.1 63.1 63.4 62.9 61.6 58.8 54.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 7 13 19 23 HEAT CONTENT 41 41 42 41 42 42 48 49 50 45 28 23 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -7. -16. -23. -31. -37. -43. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -11. -19. -28. -36. -41. -48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 12/21/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 12/21/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 12/21/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)