* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OMEKA CP012010 12/21/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 30 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 30 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 28 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 30 26 30 24 30 39 57 83 82 91 53 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 5 3 4 -1 -4 -2 -8 -3 -30 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 267 262 257 248 258 253 282 301 285 287 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.4 23.5 22.6 21.7 19.1 16.7 13.0 11.2 9.5 7.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 110 100 90 81 63 65 66 60 64 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.8 -56.4 -56.6 -56.7 -57.4 -59.2 -59.1 -58.0 -61.2 -59.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 62 57 56 54 50 27 23 39 36 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 6 6 6 7 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 209 184 134 104 90 72 2 -127 -155 -229 -89 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 182 155 103 85 91 63 27 -111 -118 -39 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1528 1456 1416 1456 1514 1660 1854 1782 1578 1442 1177 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 25.5 27.2 28.7 30.1 33.3 36.2 40.0 41.5 43.3 46.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.6 173.6 172.6 172.3 172.0 170.9 170.0 164.9 159.7 165.9 167.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 17 15 15 16 20 24 8 18 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 16 CX,CY: 11/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -12. -17. -22. -25. -28. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -19. -41. -69. -86. -94.-100. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 30. 38. 43. 47. 49. 49. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -14. -28. -48. -76. -93.-101.-108. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012010 OMEKA 12/21/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012010 OMEKA 12/21/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY