* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OMEKA CP012010 12/21/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 34 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 34 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 30 25 28 33 39 77 62 21 56 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 7 0 -1 4 -6 23 25 24 11 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 267 262 254 261 267 276 302 324 321 315 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 23.6 22.7 21.6 20.5 16.8 14.3 9.5 8.1 6.3 5.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 101 92 80 69 64 66 68 62 64 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.5 -56.2 -56.3 -56.6 -58.4 -59.9 -56.4 -51.4 -53.7 -50.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 59 58 56 57 38 31 46 42 47 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 178 125 87 71 56 -30 -93 -103 71 -12 132 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 150 105 90 91 67 1 -81 -103 -68 -88 -108 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1463 1422 1411 1473 1553 1733 1952 1378 1316 895 514 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 27.0 28.6 30.2 31.7 35.5 38.8 43.3 45.1 47.9 51.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.7 172.8 171.8 171.5 171.1 168.9 167.1 159.3 151.7 156.7 156.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 16 18 20 27 32 12 18 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -15. -19. -25. -27. -30. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -6. -20. -33. -52. -63. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 4. 6. 10. 17. 25. 35. 47. 54. 60. 61. 59. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -19. -37. -49. -66. -76. -86. -97. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012010 OMEKA 12/21/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012010 OMEKA 12/21/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY