* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 12/21/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 24 26 29 36 38 43 48 50 58 65 76 62 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 1 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 -4 -15 -4 7 SHEAR DIR 244 239 226 230 238 229 235 235 247 259 273 276 276 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.6 25.4 23.9 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 133 132 132 132 131 131 132 129 117 106 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 128 126 125 125 123 121 124 136 143 125 109 98 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -55.2 -56.5 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 48 47 48 50 49 49 48 48 45 44 38 31 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -28 -35 -38 -44 -50 -58 -69 -74 -88 -124 -110 -95 200 MB DIV 10 23 14 3 0 30 47 27 -4 11 31 42 31 LAND (KM) 342 317 312 328 358 422 433 356 522 1199 2121 1821 1185 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.5 15.0 16.1 17.7 19.9 22.5 24.8 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 58.8 59.5 60.2 60.8 61.4 62.5 63.3 63.2 60.8 54.4 44.6 34.5 27.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 7 6 6 5 4 9 23 40 47 39 31 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 46 53 53 46 50 44 35 17 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 875 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -12. -24. -35. -47. -56. -61. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -19. -27. -38. -47. -51. -52. -53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 12/21/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 12/21/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 12/21/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)