* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 12/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 33 38 39 38 50 46 53 57 63 54 48 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -4 -2 -4 -1 -2 -4 -10 1 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 232 227 231 242 243 235 237 243 255 267 269 267 257 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.4 26.6 25.3 23.5 21.9 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 132 132 132 133 133 129 116 104 94 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 128 126 125 125 122 124 135 143 124 105 92 83 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -55.6 -57.2 -58.5 -58.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 48 48 47 48 49 49 46 42 44 46 46 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -35 -32 -38 -37 -54 -56 -70 -72 -113 -107 -150 -147 200 MB DIV 18 11 -12 -21 7 57 30 21 0 36 55 53 32 LAND (KM) 277 285 314 350 377 433 350 358 976 2109 1953 1350 963 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.3 17.0 19.5 22.8 26.2 29.4 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 60.7 61.4 62.0 62.6 63.7 64.2 62.6 56.5 45.5 35.6 27.9 21.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 6 6 5 7 21 43 51 43 35 31 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 49 46 45 49 49 37 14 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 807 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -14. -27. -38. -49. -54. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -17. -25. -33. -40. -41. -39. -39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 12/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 12/21/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 12/21/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)