* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902011 03/10/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 33 33 33 40 52 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -2 -1 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 254 259 269 259 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 70 69 70 72 75 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 65 64 65 66 70 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 -55.3 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 51 45 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 13 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 121 119 107 93 67 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -13 -20 -21 -23 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 807 821 831 770 713 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.7 33.6 33.4 32.7 32.0 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 18.2 18.6 18.9 18.8 18.7 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 5 7 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -9. -7. -5. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 4. -4. -16. -26. -34. -38. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. 25. 25. 24. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 1. -3. -10. -16. -22. -26. -30. -37. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902011 INVEST 03/10/11 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902011 INVEST 03/10/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED