* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 04/20/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 35 34 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 35 34 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 31 29 23 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 79 76 86 80 70 53 50 57 63 74 79 88 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -9 -10 -13 -11 -3 -9 -2 -6 -14 -14 -16 -11 SHEAR DIR 269 267 265 267 266 260 264 264 264 263 267 263 268 SST (C) 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.6 24.2 23.2 23.0 23.7 24.7 25.4 25.7 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 105 103 103 101 98 90 88 95 102 108 110 110 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 91 91 90 87 79 77 84 92 96 98 97 98 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.7 -54.3 -54.6 -55.5 -56.8 -57.5 -56.4 -55.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 7 700-500 MB RH 44 44 48 48 51 51 48 33 24 18 17 20 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 11 11 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 58 45 44 52 31 42 43 8 -1 -7 0 -9 200 MB DIV 15 -1 12 4 31 22 26 -26 -60 -62 -36 -16 -19 LAND (KM) 745 772 801 853 909 1032 1058 936 742 594 509 431 403 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.9 25.6 26.9 27.2 26.2 24.8 23.8 23.3 23.2 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 60.8 61.0 61.1 61.4 61.6 61.7 61.8 62.3 63.6 65.2 66.8 68.1 69.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 8 7 4 2 7 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -8. -15. -26. -40. -52. -64. -73. -80. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -10. -21. -35. -48. -59. -69. -79. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 04/20/11 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 78.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 04/20/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 04/20/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)