* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 04/21/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 32 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 32 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 28 26 22 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 85 82 74 68 61 46 53 54 72 78 82 82 83 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -14 -18 -16 -8 -7 -1 -1 -11 -16 -17 -14 -11 SHEAR DIR 264 267 268 260 263 270 274 273 271 270 265 263 267 SST (C) 25.4 25.2 24.8 24.4 23.9 23.4 23.8 24.7 25.4 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 106 105 102 99 95 89 94 102 107 110 111 111 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 93 90 88 84 78 83 90 96 99 99 98 97 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -55.1 -56.1 -56.6 -56.9 -55.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 43 45 46 47 51 58 46 33 27 23 24 25 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 13 15 14 12 10 7 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 62 60 63 58 51 54 70 53 19 12 8 3 -2 200 MB DIV 20 -17 19 26 13 41 29 -68 -80 -55 -28 -1 2 LAND (KM) 645 705 768 839 910 997 962 812 641 486 370 311 300 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.0 24.6 25.3 25.9 26.6 26.1 24.8 23.5 22.5 21.7 21.3 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.4 62.2 61.8 61.5 62.0 62.9 64.1 65.0 65.8 66.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 5 1 5 7 8 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -24. -38. -50. -64. -73. -80. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -27. -41. -55. -66. -73. -84. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 04/21/11 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 74.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 04/21/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 04/21/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)