* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 04/21/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 34 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 34 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 30 27 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 82 74 69 63 52 47 54 60 79 77 85 83 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -12 -16 -15 -9 -7 -5 -1 -7 -18 -14 -19 -14 -7 SHEAR DIR 267 267 259 263 266 267 276 271 267 264 260 261 275 SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.5 24.1 25.0 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 100 96 93 90 97 104 110 111 111 111 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 88 85 81 78 86 93 99 98 98 98 98 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -55.0 -55.9 -56.4 -56.7 -56.4 -55.7 -54.6 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 44 45 46 48 51 50 35 27 22 23 26 30 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 15 15 14 11 8 6 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 60 54 48 68 59 29 7 13 6 4 -13 200 MB DIV -15 17 23 10 16 28 -27 -104 -51 -63 -5 -13 -8 LAND (KM) 651 731 812 872 932 970 863 698 517 411 355 305 299 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.4 25.1 25.7 26.2 26.5 25.6 24.3 23.0 22.2 21.7 21.6 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 62.9 62.8 62.6 62.5 62.4 62.2 62.6 63.4 64.7 65.8 66.8 67.6 68.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 7 6 4 2 6 8 8 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -21. -35. -50. -63. -74. -81. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -13. -27. -41. -55. -65. -73. -84. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 04/21/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 68.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 04/21/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 04/21/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)