* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 04/21/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 35 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 35 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 30 29 26 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 75 67 62 54 41 48 57 73 80 88 89 75 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -14 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -5 -13 -16 -20 -18 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 265 257 258 260 264 271 272 265 263 256 258 269 284 SST (C) 25.0 24.6 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.6 24.5 25.3 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 103 100 96 93 90 93 100 106 108 110 110 110 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 89 85 82 78 81 89 94 95 97 97 97 95 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -56.1 -56.2 -56.6 -56.9 -55.9 -55.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 45 45 49 51 52 42 30 23 20 25 28 34 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 14 15 14 13 9 7 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 65 59 52 60 64 40 18 14 13 13 5 -22 200 MB DIV 25 21 10 18 24 16 -57 -65 -53 -15 -6 -19 -34 LAND (KM) 725 795 865 911 958 919 775 630 544 469 422 436 503 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.1 25.7 26.2 26.6 26.3 25.2 24.1 23.4 23.1 23.2 23.6 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 63.0 62.9 62.8 62.8 62.8 63.0 63.9 65.0 66.2 67.2 68.3 69.4 70.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 4 2 4 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -18. -33. -48. -63. -74. -80. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -13. -27. -43. -57. -67. -75. -82. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 04/21/11 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 59.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 04/21/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 04/21/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)