* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 04/22/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 35 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 35 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 31 30 28 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 67 62 52 39 36 50 58 68 77 84 72 57 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -5 -6 -4 -3 -4 -7 -11 -16 -19 -11 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 255 253 254 255 268 278 266 263 260 259 265 286 285 SST (C) 24.4 24.0 23.6 23.5 23.4 24.0 24.9 25.3 25.5 25.5 25.2 24.7 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 99 95 92 90 91 96 103 106 107 108 105 101 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 84 80 78 79 85 91 93 94 95 93 90 84 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.9 -56.6 -55.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -55.1 -55.6 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 48 50 50 50 47 34 23 22 25 32 32 35 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 15 14 12 8 6 5 4 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 60 50 65 70 63 31 2 2 -5 0 -17 -32 200 MB DIV 29 -1 5 12 5 -48 -71 -35 -41 -4 -30 -25 -18 LAND (KM) 816 867 919 926 934 834 703 608 540 528 581 644 670 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.8 26.3 26.4 26.5 25.8 24.8 24.3 24.2 24.4 25.0 25.7 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.1 63.2 64.1 65.3 66.7 67.9 69.1 70.4 71.8 72.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 1 3 6 7 6 5 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -15. -30. -44. -58. -66. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -15. -28. -41. -54. -62. -68. -74. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 04/22/11 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 04/22/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 04/22/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)