* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912011 04/22/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 26 25 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 53 40 39 42 45 50 59 75 74 52 50 51 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -4 -4 0 -2 -4 -8 -18 -14 0 3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 258 258 269 278 277 267 264 259 265 277 297 291 311 SST (C) 23.1 23.0 22.9 23.1 23.5 24.4 24.9 24.9 24.6 23.7 22.7 22.4 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 90 88 88 91 93 99 103 103 101 96 90 88 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 76 77 81 83 88 91 91 90 86 81 79 79 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.5 -57.5 -56.9 -56.4 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -55.9 -56.0 -56.7 -57.3 -58.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 46 48 48 43 38 28 25 26 32 36 38 43 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 12 9 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 48 55 59 59 34 2 -10 -29 -41 -60 -65 -113 200 MB DIV 22 23 -13 -26 -72 -74 -33 -33 3 -31 -46 2 -1 LAND (KM) 986 996 1008 954 904 788 673 652 679 716 609 555 378 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.1 27.2 26.9 26.5 25.7 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.7 27.9 29.5 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 62.9 63.1 63.2 63.8 64.4 65.8 67.4 68.9 70.5 72.3 74.0 75.0 75.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 3 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 3. -1. -10. -26. -40. -50. -54. -57. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 19. 21. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -6. -15. -25. -36. -45. -51. -53. -54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912011 INVEST 04/22/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912011 INVEST 04/22/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912011 INVEST 04/22/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)