* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST AL852011 05/18/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 42 44 44 44 42 41 39 39 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 42 44 44 44 42 41 39 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 29 31 34 37 41 45 50 53 SHEAR (KT) 47 40 37 31 27 35 27 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 1 3 0 0 1 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 266 263 272 270 266 243 237 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.1 23.4 22.6 21.7 20.7 21.6 17.9 10.6 7.4 7.1 7.7 8.3 POT. INT. (KT) 105 101 96 91 87 83 87 75 64 60 59 60 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 87 82 79 76 79 70 63 59 58 59 59 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -55.5 -56.7 -57.9 -58.6 -58.1 -58.5 -58.8 -59.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 33 35 38 43 51 56 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -7 -26 -33 -29 -24 0 35 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 34 49 42 43 27 24 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 15 27 19 4 19 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 457 591 708 650 620 686 716 520 290 207 194 197 218 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 28.0 29.2 30.3 31.4 33.6 36.1 38.9 41.4 42.7 42.8 42.1 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 74.2 72.9 72.1 71.2 68.8 66.3 64.3 63.4 63.0 63.1 64.0 64.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 17 15 13 14 16 16 15 10 4 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 939 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 6. 5. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -6. -10. -15. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 23. 29. 32. 35. 35. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -5. -5. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 14. 14. 12. 11. 10. 9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL852011 TEST 05/18/11 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL852011 TEST 05/18/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL852011 TEST 05/18/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)