* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST AL802011 05/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 19 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 19 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 18 22 25 24 21 25 22 27 31 35 36 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 6 6 3 4 -2 -4 -1 -2 8 3 0 SHEAR DIR 273 280 276 285 288 284 285 270 283 279 279 271 272 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 137 138 138 140 140 140 139 139 139 137 134 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 132 134 134 136 136 136 134 135 134 131 127 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 42 37 38 40 38 39 43 47 51 55 61 66 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -40 -41 -45 -48 -49 -50 -39 -39 -20 -19 -18 -24 200 MB DIV -4 -7 -17 -24 -38 -2 -2 8 -3 27 29 62 60 700-850 TADV 4 0 -1 0 0 0 1 3 2 -2 1 4 11 LAND (KM) 657 649 601 548 500 357 210 157 233 333 381 255 168 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.6 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 53.5 54.2 54.9 55.6 56.3 57.8 59.3 60.8 62.4 64.0 65.4 66.7 67.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 54 56 59 63 67 89 84 64 52 59 38 47 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL802011 TEST 05/23/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL802011 TEST 05/23/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL802011 TEST 05/23/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)