* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 05/23/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 31 34 36 35 31 26 21 17 16 16 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 31 34 36 35 31 26 21 17 16 16 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 22 22 21 19 19 18 18 19 SHEAR (KT) 34 28 28 35 39 42 44 46 47 48 35 27 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -6 -2 -5 -1 -5 -7 -6 -10 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 278 298 308 318 316 310 316 308 307 292 290 281 298 SST (C) 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.7 22.6 22.3 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 95 94 92 91 92 92 91 91 89 88 88 87 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 85 82 81 81 81 80 80 79 77 78 78 77 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.5 -56.3 -56.0 -56.2 -55.8 -56.5 -56.7 -56.9 -57.2 -57.5 -57.3 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 55 55 49 48 50 51 57 64 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 115 128 126 136 124 111 98 68 65 40 46 28 200 MB DIV 46 4 -7 17 16 1 20 13 11 22 22 7 8 700-850 TADV 1 -1 3 0 0 0 -2 3 -3 -1 -8 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 1438 1520 1610 1637 1665 1727 1802 1932 2015 1923 1812 1690 1553 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.9 27.7 28.7 29.6 30.5 31.5 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 56.5 55.2 53.8 53.3 52.7 51.6 50.8 49.8 49.5 49.7 50.7 52.2 54.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 9 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 8. 13. 16. 18. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 0. -11. -21. -30. -35. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 15. 11. 6. 1. -3. -4. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 05/23/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 05/23/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 05/23/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)