* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 05/24/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 20 18 17 16 16 16 16 17 SHEAR (KT) 47 48 53 60 54 48 45 45 43 49 39 43 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -7 -11 -6 -6 -6 -10 -8 -9 -3 -4 -10 SHEAR DIR 319 322 312 308 308 301 312 299 307 290 295 290 292 SST (C) 23.2 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.0 23.7 23.6 23.4 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 92 93 95 96 97 95 93 92 89 89 88 87 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 83 84 86 86 85 83 80 77 78 78 77 77 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.0 -55.5 -55.7 -56.2 -56.2 -56.7 -56.9 -57.5 -57.1 -57.3 -56.8 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 45 44 40 38 38 43 54 61 64 66 61 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 137 134 136 135 126 92 57 48 40 31 33 39 35 200 MB DIV -16 -15 -34 -11 0 -3 17 19 15 17 40 3 -2 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -7 -10 -15 -10 LAND (KM) 1550 1520 1495 1520 1550 1729 1889 2009 2063 2022 1935 1847 1770 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 27.5 26.8 26.3 25.8 26.0 26.7 27.5 28.2 28.8 29.5 30.2 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 54.7 54.4 53.7 53.0 51.1 49.7 48.8 48.6 48.9 49.6 50.5 51.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 8 6 5 3 4 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -8. -21. -32. -40. -45. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -10. -16. -21. -25. -26. -30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 05/24/11 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 05/24/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 05/24/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)