* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 05/24/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 28 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 28 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 45 53 55 52 50 55 46 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -8 -6 -4 -8 -2 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 310 311 309 308 305 297 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.8 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.0 23.0 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 92 93 94 94 95 94 92 89 89 90 89 89 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 82 82 83 84 83 80 78 77 79 78 79 78 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -55.9 -56.1 -56.1 -56.1 -55.9 -56.2 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 40 37 38 39 43 55 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 136 130 126 120 106 68 41 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -25 -18 -24 -3 -9 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1565 1534 1505 1526 1550 1677 1806 1853 1861 1814 1765 1699 1630 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.2 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.4 54.3 54.2 53.7 53.2 51.8 50.7 50.4 50.5 51.2 52.1 53.1 54.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 6 4 2 2 4 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -9. -24. -35. -45. -52. -55. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -7. -17. -24. -31. -35. -38. -41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 05/24/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922011 INVEST 05/24/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 05/24/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)