* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 06/01/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 38 41 44 50 55 59 62 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 28 34 36 40 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 26 30 32 34 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 10 15 19 10 1 3 8 12 18 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 8 7 10 7 16 8 6 0 4 0 6 SHEAR DIR 186 176 196 244 276 308 304 159 313 268 316 300 336 SST (C) 25.6 26.1 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.5 26.0 25.9 23.3 20.4 17.9 16.4 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 113 117 110 108 109 112 116 115 95 81 73 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 105 99 97 98 101 105 104 86 74 67 64 63 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -56.6 -56.4 -56.1 -55.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.9 -56.4 -56.9 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 10 12 9 12 11 13 10 11 8 10 7 700-500 MB RH 30 29 31 28 26 23 20 20 22 29 36 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -77 -51 -62 -73 -63 -116 -105 -81 -73 -64 -62 -48 200 MB DIV -8 -15 -11 -27 -48 -75 -55 2 22 35 13 -16 15 700-850 TADV -4 -10 3 -7 -19 7 -24 12 -22 0 -13 -5 9 LAND (KM) 321 269 214 60 -101 73 48 41 -233 -514 -724 -862 -959 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 31.5 30.9 30.5 30.0 29.3 28.8 29.4 31.0 32.6 34.3 35.6 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 77.3 79.1 80.8 82.4 86.0 89.7 93.5 96.5 98.9 100.0 100.5 100.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 16 16 16 14 11 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 18 CX,CY: -13/-11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 06/01/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 46.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 06/01/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 06/01/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)