* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 06/01/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 50 54 58 61 64 67 V (KT) LAND 25 28 26 31 34 38 41 37 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 24 28 29 31 34 32 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 29 16 8 3 7 15 22 14 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 4 7 9 10 6 13 -1 7 0 6 4 4 SHEAR DIR 172 191 252 275 300 273 262 288 300 283 300 298 296 SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.0 25.6 22.9 20.2 18.1 16.5 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 112 112 116 119 116 112 92 79 73 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 102 101 102 105 108 105 100 83 72 67 64 63 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.7 -56.3 -55.9 -55.5 -54.9 -54.6 -54.8 -55.6 -56.0 -56.7 -56.6 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 12 9 9 12 9 14 9 11 6 10 3 700-500 MB RH 29 32 29 27 26 24 21 22 28 37 37 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -47 -50 -63 -63 -87 -117 -92 -50 -59 -48 -59 -35 200 MB DIV -20 -7 -23 -58 -65 -61 -24 10 34 3 -6 -1 -1 700-850 TADV -6 4 -9 -21 -2 -6 -19 4 -25 10 -12 26 -9 LAND (KM) 270 100 -70 54 111 93 136 -84 -344 -610 -778 -917 -999 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.4 29.6 31.0 32.6 33.9 35.2 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.5 80.2 81.9 83.7 85.4 89.0 92.5 95.8 98.4 100.5 101.5 102.0 102.1 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 16 16 16 16 15 14 13 10 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 21 CX,CY: -17/ -9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 19. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 06/01/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 45.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 06/01/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 06/01/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)