* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 06/02/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 42 44 45 43 40 41 41 43 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 42 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 23 24 25 12 21 20 22 29 39 30 36 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 4 0 0 -2 0 -3 2 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 226 253 274 233 249 269 289 298 278 285 276 269 266 SST (C) 26.0 26.4 26.7 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.1 24.9 23.7 22.9 22.2 21.4 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 123 123 118 118 115 104 95 89 85 81 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 113 112 108 106 103 92 83 78 75 71 69 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.2 -55.1 -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -55.5 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 9 12 12 8 12 9 10 6 7 3 4 700-500 MB RH 28 27 25 26 24 21 25 26 35 30 35 32 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 5 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -46 -57 -51 -64 -79 -44 -35 -34 -21 -27 -23 -22 200 MB DIV -33 -69 -91 -58 -53 -17 2 13 -25 -14 -19 -21 1 700-850 TADV -6 -13 0 14 2 -12 3 -8 -1 -8 0 -2 4 LAND (KM) 147 203 203 190 225 176 -69 -281 -490 -626 -719 -689 -684 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.3 28.3 29.1 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.5 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 84.5 86.3 88.1 89.9 91.6 94.8 97.6 99.7 101.6 102.9 104.0 104.7 105.1 STM SPEED (KT) 22 17 16 16 15 14 12 10 8 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 3 17 6 3 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):252/ 26 CX,CY: -24/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 865 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 1. -4. -9. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 19. 20. 18. 15. 16. 16. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 06/02/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -60.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 06/02/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 06/02/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)