* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 06/02/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 29 30 31 34 37 37 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 26 26 27 27 27 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 17 17 24 26 26 27 27 31 SHEAR (KT) 29 25 28 32 26 26 26 29 26 22 19 14 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 -3 -2 2 -6 SHEAR DIR 248 245 250 255 252 259 289 287 293 278 263 210 207 SST (C) 27.9 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 28.0 28.3 28.7 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 130 126 126 128 128 128 129 136 139 145 142 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 120 115 114 116 114 115 116 122 124 128 125 121 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 9 12 9 12 8 9 5 7 5 700-500 MB RH 25 27 29 24 24 27 29 33 39 41 40 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -16 -15 -26 -8 12 25 17 24 10 17 12 13 200 MB DIV -51 -43 -31 -39 -33 -36 -32 -37 -49 -46 -24 -1 1 700-850 TADV 1 5 0 -1 -3 7 -4 0 0 -4 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 386 388 393 440 367 140 -50 -245 -392 -224 -93 0 53 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 24.7 24.3 24.2 24.0 24.2 24.0 23.7 22.9 22.3 21.9 21.5 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 88.8 90.3 91.7 92.9 94.1 96.4 98.3 100.2 101.8 103.3 104.5 105.3 106.0 STM SPEED (KT) 19 14 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 16 14 17 18 18 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 26 CX,CY: -22/-12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 2. -4. -10. -14. -15. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 10. 11. 14. 17. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 06/02/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -39.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 06/02/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 06/02/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)