* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 06/02/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 22 23 22 21 20 21 25 30 32 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 22 23 20 24 26 26 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 31 37 41 32 36 32 24 26 22 15 8 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -8 -6 0 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 238 249 253 250 236 264 266 300 299 304 263 209 197 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 128 131 133 133 133 134 138 140 143 144 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 114 115 118 120 119 119 120 123 124 126 126 127 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 27 26 23 24 27 25 32 36 41 41 42 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -2 -5 5 22 24 15 17 -1 4 0 10 10 200 MB DIV -39 -29 -34 -32 -38 -40 -30 -37 -31 -34 -12 -24 6 700-850 TADV 5 0 0 -3 0 -8 2 -3 1 -2 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 309 303 321 385 350 184 0 -143 -303 -346 -259 -189 -146 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 23.7 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.1 22.8 22.5 22.0 21.6 21.2 20.8 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 89.9 91.1 92.2 93.2 94.2 96.0 97.8 99.3 100.8 101.9 102.7 103.4 103.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 18 26 25 21 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 22 CX,CY: -16/-13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 826 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -9. -14. -17. -17. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 5. 10. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 06/02/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 06/02/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 06/02/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)