* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 06/03/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 24 24 23 23 23 25 30 35 36 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 24 24 23 25 26 27 27 35 36 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 19 18 24 26 26 27 33 37 SHEAR (KT) 39 37 32 27 31 24 22 24 20 9 3 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -12 -6 -3 -2 -6 -1 0 0 0 3 5 2 5 SHEAR DIR 248 257 256 244 247 281 279 319 324 323 309 196 192 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.2 29.3 28.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 132 135 134 135 135 140 146 154 155 145 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 115 120 121 120 121 122 128 134 141 142 133 117 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 10 11 9 12 8 10 6 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 28 25 25 29 28 30 36 41 43 45 45 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 12 23 26 32 19 23 0 21 16 18 19 200 MB DIV -42 -31 -28 -40 -48 -42 -34 -34 -42 -39 -11 -15 14 700-850 TADV 5 -1 -4 -1 2 -5 2 -1 -2 0 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 286 305 356 364 271 123 -39 -230 -271 -129 -4 112 198 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.3 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.5 22.0 21.2 20.4 19.5 18.9 18.3 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 91.0 92.0 93.0 94.0 94.9 96.5 98.2 99.9 101.5 102.9 104.0 105.2 106.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 27 28 22 23 19 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):228/ 17 CX,CY: -12/-10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -6. -10. -12. -11. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 5. 10. 15. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 06/03/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 06/03/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 06/03/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)