* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 06/03/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 18 19 20 21 21 22 22 24 27 31 29 V (KT) LAND 15 16 18 19 20 22 25 26 27 27 32 36 35 V (KT) LGE mod 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 33 26 21 27 24 26 23 21 16 8 6 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 3 2 1 -2 1 4 2 4 1 SHEAR DIR 254 258 261 289 316 316 331 331 333 320 236 181 209 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.7 27.9 26.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 131 132 131 134 138 141 145 145 133 116 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 118 118 119 118 121 125 128 131 130 119 104 93 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 12 10 9 12 8 9 5 6 5 7 4 700-500 MB RH 23 24 25 25 26 31 38 40 42 43 39 38 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 11 10 20 26 12 20 3 13 7 8 3 -11 200 MB DIV -41 -49 -40 -35 -50 -27 -45 -34 -38 -17 -25 2 -30 700-850 TADV -7 -5 3 -7 -8 2 0 -4 0 1 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 392 388 286 189 92 -111 -298 -269 -116 -20 62 178 281 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.3 22.9 22.3 21.8 21.3 20.8 20.4 20.2 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 94.0 95.0 96.0 96.9 98.9 100.8 102.7 104.1 105.2 106.3 107.4 108.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 16 19 20 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 26. 31. 35. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 4. -2. -5. -7. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 12. 16. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 06/03/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -43.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 45.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 06/03/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 06/03/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)