* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 06/03/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 18 19 20 21 20 18 17 16 16 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 15 16 18 19 20 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 29 31 26 24 31 26 24 19 17 22 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 1 4 2 2 0 0 0 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 253 261 287 311 304 318 311 309 294 265 235 233 247 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 127 127 128 129 130 131 133 133 131 128 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 113 114 114 116 116 115 116 114 112 109 106 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 9 10 10 9 7 5 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 25 25 24 25 27 31 37 37 35 33 31 32 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 -3 0 -4 17 15 18 10 16 1 24 -3 200 MB DIV -44 -39 -29 -56 -41 -41 -46 -41 -26 -36 -7 -10 -10 700-850 TADV -4 4 -4 -7 3 -3 4 -6 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 418 322 226 129 30 -183 -397 -275 -171 -104 -81 -74 -133 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.7 24.0 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 93.6 94.6 95.5 96.5 97.5 99.6 101.7 103.4 104.6 105.4 105.8 106.2 106.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 6 5 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 14 16 1 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 25. 30. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 3. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 06/03/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -41.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 45.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 06/03/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 06/03/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)