* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/03/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 31 34 38 38 36 32 27 21 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 31 34 38 38 36 30 31 26 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 25 28 26 SHEAR (KT) 5 14 15 12 10 18 13 16 19 26 24 34 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -3 -6 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 184 200 220 239 225 248 234 241 216 245 242 245 245 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 136 136 135 135 136 135 134 130 127 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 125 124 122 120 120 121 120 119 115 112 109 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 78 77 70 69 62 61 60 60 58 59 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 85 95 100 90 88 84 76 74 64 39 44 32 2 200 MB DIV 68 78 52 47 53 12 27 33 66 32 26 5 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 -2 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 178 145 111 78 54 54 38 38 94 28 -44 15 112 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 77.3 76.8 76.3 76.1 75.9 75.7 75.9 76.1 76.1 75.8 75.3 74.7 74.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 4 4 3 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 66 63 61 58 54 53 56 58 53 45 54 10 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 18. 16. 12. 7. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/03/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/03/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/03/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)