* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/04/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 39 43 49 52 50 47 42 37 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 39 43 49 52 50 47 42 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 40 46 50 53 52 49 SHEAR (KT) 12 15 12 11 15 12 10 7 14 15 23 23 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -4 -5 -3 -4 -1 -2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 192 212 223 229 231 215 186 208 212 248 238 249 245 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 136 136 136 137 138 137 136 136 137 136 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 122 122 123 126 125 123 122 121 122 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 -53.0 -52.3 -53.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 8 7 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 78 75 71 71 72 66 67 68 66 62 63 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 94 98 89 94 104 90 104 109 103 88 69 51 45 200 MB DIV 75 49 36 46 46 20 75 61 76 31 24 15 19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 165 140 115 120 131 192 259 320 304 301 316 324 359 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 77.9 78.0 78.3 78.5 79.5 80.4 81.1 81.5 81.7 81.9 82.2 82.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 3 5 4 2 2 1 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 70 71 65 70 77 77 52 72 69 68 69 70 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 24. 27. 25. 22. 17. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/04/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/04/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/04/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)