* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/04/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 33 37 43 42 38 32 26 20 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 33 37 43 42 38 32 26 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 37 37 35 30 25 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 14 14 8 9 6 18 26 31 44 44 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 3 -3 8 5 SHEAR DIR 254 241 236 238 231 203 225 214 231 225 255 239 242 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 137 138 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 123 123 123 123 123 121 121 121 122 123 123 119 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 69 66 65 62 60 57 54 55 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 78 86 100 100 92 97 100 99 70 61 46 51 34 200 MB DIV 30 27 36 42 37 69 74 80 41 37 29 19 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -2 0 0 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 176 152 129 129 138 138 158 168 184 219 190 70 -30 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.2 20.0 21.1 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 77.8 78.0 78.1 78.4 78.7 79.3 79.7 79.9 80.0 80.1 80.2 80.1 79.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 70 73 70 74 79 75 72 66 62 60 61 58 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -5. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 18. 17. 13. 7. 1. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/04/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/04/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/04/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)