* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/04/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 33 38 43 43 39 33 26 20 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 33 38 43 43 39 33 26 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 37 38 35 30 27 SHEAR (KT) 4 8 10 4 5 8 7 17 19 37 38 49 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -3 -4 -3 0 1 3 2 4 1 SHEAR DIR 209 220 246 242 231 262 222 249 247 240 249 238 234 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 137 136 137 137 136 137 137 138 135 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 123 125 124 123 124 123 123 123 124 122 115 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 76 75 71 69 68 71 70 63 61 59 56 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 84 102 107 96 97 114 102 93 79 65 56 53 53 200 MB DIV 44 45 52 34 45 68 70 63 34 33 25 27 38 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 6 3 6 LAND (KM) 206 212 222 242 261 276 254 178 100 77 106 7 -9 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.9 18.6 19.6 20.8 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.2 78.5 78.8 79.2 79.6 80.1 80.2 79.7 79.2 78.9 78.7 78.3 78.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 3 2 3 3 4 4 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 74 73 74 75 75 74 68 74 74 68 57 20 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 4. -2. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 18. 14. 8. 1. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/04/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/04/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/04/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)