* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 06/04/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 53 62 72 76 80 80 81 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 53 62 72 76 80 80 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 39 47 55 65 74 82 87 90 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 1 0 6 10 14 17 20 19 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -6 -4 -4 -5 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 135 90 112 145 329 89 102 90 105 90 73 81 63 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 164 163 165 164 164 162 160 158 155 152 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 62 63 65 65 68 64 68 66 63 61 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 14 15 16 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 21 24 27 19 25 19 34 30 29 22 21 200 MB DIV -3 1 0 5 20 40 32 35 57 70 112 80 68 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -7 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 594 598 602 599 600 598 587 602 611 608 616 599 587 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 98.2 98.4 98.6 99.1 99.5 100.3 101.0 101.8 102.7 103.3 104.1 104.9 105.5 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 21 34 44 46 51 58 70 66 59 54 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 31. 36. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 10. 11. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 28. 37. 47. 51. 55. 55. 56. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/04/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/04/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##