* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/05/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 40 42 38 31 25 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 34 40 42 38 31 25 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 35 35 32 27 22 17 SHEAR (KT) 7 8 5 2 3 5 16 20 37 44 49 50 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 1 5 4 3 4 4 6 SHEAR DIR 228 250 266 229 200 266 226 246 244 263 247 244 235 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 138 138 139 138 137 137 136 137 139 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 126 127 125 126 123 123 123 122 124 125 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 7 9 8 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 75 70 68 68 71 71 68 62 57 54 52 50 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 10 11 11 12 14 13 11 9 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 99 109 95 91 107 113 118 103 90 63 57 46 32 200 MB DIV 43 57 32 43 62 66 83 39 30 25 23 16 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 4 1 3 0 LAND (KM) 216 242 267 288 315 278 278 322 311 316 323 204 91 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.2 19.1 20.2 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 79.2 79.7 80.2 80.6 81.2 81.5 81.2 81.2 81.3 81.5 81.6 82.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 3 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 74 75 75 74 65 43 59 70 69 69 70 71 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. 4. -3. -10. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 17. 13. 6. 0. -7. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/05/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/05/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/05/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)