* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 06/05/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 43 39 33 26 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 43 39 33 26 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 37 35 32 27 22 21 SHEAR (KT) 9 5 2 5 6 9 19 19 36 37 47 47 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 2 6 5 4 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 263 285 232 220 250 210 241 238 245 247 239 234 231 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 136 138 137 136 137 136 136 137 138 137 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 124 125 124 122 123 122 121 123 125 125 119 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 72 69 69 71 71 68 63 61 56 55 50 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 103 87 85 97 105 99 97 72 62 46 32 46 25 200 MB DIV 50 33 47 57 65 77 77 38 27 32 24 33 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 4 3 5 7 7 LAND (KM) 234 253 270 280 293 301 253 188 158 147 172 48 10 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.7 21.1 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.0 79.5 79.9 80.2 80.5 80.8 80.5 80.0 79.8 79.6 79.4 79.4 79.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 1 3 3 3 4 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 75 75 75 74 66 62 60 71 68 62 54 53 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. -3. -9. -15. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 18. 14. 8. 1. -5. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 06/05/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 06/05/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 06/05/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)