* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 06/05/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 27 30 39 48 58 65 71 72 73 66 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 27 30 39 48 58 65 71 72 73 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 30 36 43 50 59 66 70 71 SHEAR (KT) 1 3 3 5 5 10 12 15 16 16 16 17 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 194 22 42 57 75 83 74 72 70 57 56 50 63 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 162 162 164 162 162 161 158 154 147 141 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -50.2 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 69 70 65 66 63 66 61 54 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 12 13 15 17 19 19 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR 19 28 30 22 12 16 5 5 4 13 14 15 15 200 MB DIV -3 21 47 40 43 18 24 68 115 99 89 99 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -8 -3 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 653 656 659 655 655 647 648 652 627 599 547 507 470 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.2 12.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 98.4 98.9 99.3 99.8 100.2 101.0 101.7 102.7 103.5 104.3 105.1 105.8 106.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 33 42 42 42 49 54 68 65 57 52 41 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 14. 16. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 5. 14. 23. 33. 40. 46. 47. 48. 41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 06/05/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 06/05/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##